Apple is sliding today, dropping as much as 3% after JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee (who is overweight on AAPL with a $150 price target) published a note warning that based on recent surveys from Wave7 Research into sales trends across carriers, iPhone sales are “moderating substantially” ahead of the iPhone 12 launch, partly driven by moderation in iPhone 11 series, as consumers are increasingly looking to wait for the fall launch.
And while sales of the low-end iPhone SE appear to be holding up better in recent months at certain carriers, JPM also sees a moderation in momentum for the lower-end iPhone as well.
Key highlights from the Wave7 survey for August include:
- The survey points to significant moderation in share for iPhones in August, ahead of iPhone 12 launch and in conjunction with launch of Samsung’s refreshed lineup.
- Market share for the iPhone 11 series is moderating despite promotions from carriers (particularly for 11 Pro and Pro Max) to clear inventory.
- 58% of Apple’s US Stores are open vs. 80% in late June led by reemergence of COVID-19 cases.
- Although counterintuitive given the price point, iPhone SE appears to be doing better at postpaid but remains soft with pre-paid customers. iPhone SE supply remains tight indicating that demand might be more sustainable for this SKU.
- iPhone 7 is the primary phone at pre-paid and particularly with certain carriers. Outside of iPhone 7, the other older iPhone selling at stores in decent amounts is iPhone XR.