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Majority of Labour Activists Believe Tories Will Win Next Election, Survey Reveals

Following their 2019 election defeat, the Labour Party has found themselves with a large mountain to climb if they hope to defeat the ruling Conservative Party at the next general election, with even their own members losing confidence in their ability to remove the government from power.

A majority of Labour activists who responded to an online poll said that they believe that the Conservatives will win the next UK general election.

LabourList asked readers to pick what the outcome of the next election would be, with 55% saying that they believe it will be some form of Tory victory either in a coalition or an outright majority.

This is contrasted with 45% predicting a Labour win after excluding ‘don’t know’ answers.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has also taken a popularity hit when compared to previous polls. When asked on their satisfaction with Starmers leadership, the top answer was “very unhappy” (34.3%) followed by “very happy” (33.8%).

​Last March, another Labourlist poll found that “very happy” won out at 36% while 25% said they were “very unhappy”.

On policy, LabourList readers supported the bold policies of the 2019 general election such as cancellation of local authority debt (81.5%) and introducing proportional representation (75%).

The most popular policy, of which 82% said they were in support of, was cutting the substantial majority of carbon emissions by 2030. Followed slightly by creating one million green jobs at 74%.

Increasing income tax was supported by 71% and nationalising utilities such as rail, mail, energy, and water by 67%.

The least 2019 policies that did not receive majority support were free and fast broadband for all at 49.6% and renewing Trident (12.3%).

ConservativeHome recently ran the same survey question which found that 74% of their members confidently believed that Tory majority would be the most likely outcome of the next general election – scheduled for 2024.

For Labour to win the next election, it would require a gain of 123 seats in order to secure a parliamentary majority of just one – a feat that no major party has achieved in history.

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