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US economy won’t recover soon & Federal Reserve ‘should go out of business,’ Ron Paul tells Boom Bust — RT Business News

The US Federal Reserve has said it plans to maintain low interest rates for the foreseeable future until it is confident the economy has weathered the consequences of Covid-19 and is in the process of recovery.

RT’s Boom Bust spoke to former US congressman and author of ‘End the Fed’ Dr Ron Paul about his outlook for the long road to economic recovery.

“I don’t think the economy is going to recover, I think it is going yet to be much worse, the market policy edges on total insanity of it all,” he said.

“We got into trouble because we spent too much money. The debt is out of control, the interest rates for a gimmick down to zero, they’re just doing the same thing over again. The only thing they’ve added is what is equivalent to ‘helicopter money’ that Bernanke wanted.”

According to the former US Representative, “There will be eventually decreased confidence in the dollar.”

“I think the Federal Reserve should go out of business. [In the] short run I have dire predictions, because they won’t liquidate the debt but the market will liquidate the debt. And that would be a major event.”

In the long-term, Ron Paul said he was “optimistic that in a year, or two or three, people will wake up and understand that this is a total failure.”

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

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Coindesk News

Paul Tudor Jones’s Bitcoin Bet Brings it Closer to Central Bank Balance Sheets

Byrne Hobart, a CoinDesk columnist, is an investor, consultant and writer in New York. His newsletter, The Diff (diff.substack.com), covers inflection points in finance and technology. 

The bull case for bitcoin as a store of value is simple: at first nobody owns it. Then it’s owned by people who are some combination of crazy and smart, but generally crazier than they are smart. Over time the craziness requirement drops, more investors buy it and it becomes dumb not to own a little. Since existing monetary systems are necessarily optimized for the status quo – and the dollar is, in fact, very well optimized for a globalized world with a hegemonic United States – an alternative system like bitcoin is necessarily a bet on a weirder world.

We certainly live in a weird world today.

And some sophisticated money managers are taking notice.

See also: Hedge Fund Pioneer Turns Bullish on Bitcoin Amid ‘Unprecedented’ Monetary Inflation

Paul Tudor Jones II, a well-regarded global macro investor, made headlines last week when he announced he’d bought bitcoin and planned to invest up to a single-digit percentage of his net worth in the currency. PTJ is not exactly a nose-ringed millennial day trading on Robinhood. He’s been running his fund since 1980 and has accumulated almost $40 billion in assets under management.

Jones is best known as a global macro investor, placing bets on interest rates, currencies and commodities. He founded his firm at the beginning of a golden age of macro investing, as the world worked through the implications of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, volatility in oil and the rise of Japan. In one five-year period, Jones’ worst annual return was 99.2%. But since the heady days of the 1970s and 1980s, macro has gotten more challenging, and the pace has slowed. Aggressive traders used to be a powerful force (in the mid-1990s, U.S. President Bill Clinton was shocked by how powerful funds were, exclaiming to an adviser: “You mean to tell me that the success of the economic program and my re-election hinges on the Federal Reserve and a bunch of f—ing bond traders?”)

Since then, several things have changed. Central banks have gotten more powerful because declining inflation gave them more flexibility to raise and lower rates to stimulate growth, and their perceived success in averting crises gave them a broader mandate. Meanwhile, the macro market has gotten more competitive: There are more pure macro funds, and the banks and businesses that took the other side of their trades have gotten more sophisticated. Today, macro funds try to eke out modest gains instead of betting on the rise and fall of nations.

The endgame for Bitcoin as a reserve asset is that it has a place on central banks’ balance sheets, like gold and the Swiss Franc.

But their trading style remains intact. Paul Tudor Jones’ approach is well documented in interviews, including the classic documentary Trader. Jones’ approach boils down to two things: understanding fundamentals and believing prices. A purist might focus entirely on building the fundamental argument for why a given asset is a good purchase – looking at a company’s earnings growth and competitive position, or judging a currency based on its government’s fiscal and monetary policy. A pure speculator typically makes decisions entirely based on price action, ignoring the underlying reason. Jones’ approach synthesizes these: He assumes prices move for a reason, and that if you understand the reason you can accurately predict the rest of the move.

In bitcoin’s case, Jones starts with the premise that the money supply has massively increased but the supply of goods and services has declined. As he put it in his investment memo: “A large demand shortfall will prevent goods and services inflation from rising in the short term. The question is whether that will be the case in the long term with a central bank whose central focus will be repairing the worst employment crisis since the Great Depression.” (Emphasis added.)

If demand can’t meet supply – there’s money in your pocket but you can’t take a vacation or go out to a fancy dinner – the money still has to go somewhere. In most recessions, that money finds its way into savings accounts (in 2007, the average savings rate as a percentage of disposable income was 3.7%. By 2012, it had more than doubled to 8.8%). But savers are rational, and when rates are low they’ll look for somewhere else to put their money. Jones considers several vehicles for savings: stocks and bonds, cash, gold, and bitcoin. He ranks them according to criteria such as trustworthiness, liquidity, purchasing power and portability. He concludes that, based on those criteria, bitcoin is fundamentally the least desirable of all the savings vehicles, just based on its intrinsic traits.

ptj-excerpt
Store value valuation, PTJ analysis

But that’s a value judgment; the other question is price. And on price, bitcoin is the winner; its value is under 2% of gold’s and less than 0.1% of the value of all financial assets.

ptj-2
PTJ analysis

So after careful due diligence, the famous trend-chasing macro investor ultimately treated bitcoin as a value play.

That’s not as crazy as it sounds. Currencies are always odd assets because their value is a self-fulfilling prophecy: A dollar is worth a dollar because people treat it as being worth a dollar, and people treat it as being worth a dollar because other people do. This makes every currency by its nature a slow-motion momentum trade (with a vicious unwind when the country loses control of its currency). On most of the traits that matter for currencies – stability and liquidity – bitcoin scores poorly. But the higher its value, the better it looks.

Since a working currency is a slow-motion speculation and a new cryptocurrency is a hyperactive speculative asset, it makes sense to think of the progress a currency makes as a process of rising in value and slowing down in volatility. And one way that happens – the way it has to happen – is that larger speculators with slightly longer time horizons accumulate positions. The endgame for bitcoin as a reserve asset is that it has a place on central banks’ balance sheets, like gold and the Swiss franc: In case of emergency, break open the cold wallet. And the intermediaries in that process are institutional investors.

Part of the way macro funds work is by keeping close tabs on the economy, and that means talking to academics and policymakers. Depending on your outlook this is either reasonable behavior – politicians consulting with relevant subject matter experts on complex topics – or it’s a conspiracy in which speculators make trades and then lean on the government to make those trades profitable. It’s probably a bit of both: Traders do have good information and can spend all of their time mentally stress testing an investment thesis. But they also have a strong incentive to talk their book.

See also: The Great Monetary Inflation: Paul Tudor Jones’ Complete Case for Bitcoin

A macro fund with a bitcoin position is one step closer to a central bank with the same kind of position. And while Jones’ $40 billion under management certainly sounds like a lot of money, it’s a tiny amount compared to central bank balance sheets.

It’s important not to get too fixated on any one trader, of course. Jones says he actually owned bitcoin personally back in 2017 when he played the bubble and sold out near the top. “It is amazing how well one can trade when there is no leverage, no performance pressure and no greed to intrude upon rational reflection! When it doesn’t count, we are all geniuses,” he says. (That’s right: 2020 is so weird you just learned a billionaire hedge fund manager is jealous of your trading opportunities.) Given short-term performance requirements and high leverage, a hedge fund is a naturally weak hand in the market.

But it’s a good sign that more funds are looking at, and acting on, the bitcoin opportunity. As Jones puts it in his letter to investors: “Something appears wrong here and my guess is it is the price of bitcoin.” He closes more ominously: “One thing is for sure, these are going to be incredibly interesting times.” Indeed.

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The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.



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Daily Beast News

Nicholas Hoult, Paul Mescal, and the Many Hot Butts of Quarantine

This is a preview of our pop culture newsletter The Daily Beast’s Obsessed, written by senior entertainment reporter Kevin Fallon. To receive the full newsletter in your inbox each week, sign up for it here. 

This week: 

  • Someone’s finally going to see Hamilton.
  • Someone’s very much going to regret writing this.
  • Someone can’t stop watching cooking shows.
  • Someone has a crush on Ina Garten.
  • Someone wants nothing but the best for Insecure’s Natasha Rothwell.

The Many Butts of Quarantine

In these times scored by endless, relentless monotony, it is the little thrills that keep us alive, that keep us going. It is for this reason that I am thankful for the many butts of quarantine.

Maybe this is objectifying. Maybe this is a cry for help. Maybe this is a fun little column item for a pop-culture newsletter and everyone can just calm down, OK? 

I clap every evening at 7 pm for the frontline workers, so gratitude is often on the mind these days. It is in that spirit of thanks that we acknowledge those who have brought peace to the horny chaos of social distancing.

The moody Irish butt of Paul Mescal in Normal People, we couldn’t make it through this without you. The swaggering douchebag butt of Nicholas Hoult in The Greats sixth episode (you know, in case you were wondering when it appears), you’ve done such great work. Insecure, your male cast is always here for us and we won’t forget it. Jay Ellis, bless you, sir.

A flash of Rock Hudson bum (actor Jake Picking) in Hollywood is appreciated, if not as generous as we had hoped. Same goes for the side view of David Corenswet, a skimpier display than we would have expected from the lead of a Ryan Murphy production

The men of Outlander, you’re our rock, always there when we need you. Mexican production The House of Flowers and Spanish teen soap Elite confirm that, all across the globe, we really are all in this together. I learned there was a show called The Last Kingdom while “researching” this piece. For certain purposes, I would highly recommend. 

So there you go. Much thanks to all of you. I am going to wish I had deleted this entire thing the minute it is published. 

Amy Schumer’s Cooking Show Is Exactly My Speed

Developing new traditions to navigate the monotony of quarantine has been crucial to stay sane. And the one I have managed to maintain religiously is spending every waking hour complaining about cooking while also for some reason watching cooking shows. Constantly. I can’t stop watching cooking shows, and I am not good or a happy cook. I cannot explain the dissonance.

In any case, as a recent connoisseur of the genre, I highly recommend Amy Schumer Learns to Cook. The concept is refreshingly simple, in contrast with the trend of increasingly elaborate high-concept series. (You must rob a convenience store for ingredients, grow your own herbs, and cook your dish blindfolded on a plane tarmac using candlesticks for flames!)

Amy Schumer’s husband is a James Beard Award-winning chef. She is a novice cook. While stuck at home together, he teaches her how to make a few things. She cracks jokes while he does it. Their nanny films the whole thing. It’s a delight. 

The show is also both a sly homage and deconstruction of TV cooking programs. The title cards labeling what they’re cooking are written on ripped pieces of cardboard using Sharpies. Schumer roasts her husband, cooking shows, and the entire idea of cooking while they work. “Who the FUCK has a food mill?” she asks at one point. “We do,” he shrugs. “OK.” 

In the end, the food they make looks delicious and totally doable. The whole thing is a nice vibe where you just kind of giggle the whole time.

Ina Garten Just Keeps Getting Better

You may recall from a few weeks ago the moment that changed history. The seismic event that shifted the world on its axis. The triumph of comedy and cultural understanding that spoke to our times, our present anxieties, and our hopes for the future: Ina Garten made a bigass cocktail.

This week, our queen continued her culinary philanthropy, posting an Instagram photo of her latest creation, hot dogs wrapped in puff pastry. Barefoot Contessa made some pigs in a blanket. The caption was, “It’s Week Whatever in quarantine and I needed dinner in a hurry so I wrapped some hot dogs in puff pastry and baked them.”

Ina Garten is on my level, and it is beautiful. I shed a single tear.

Natasha Rothwell Is an Angel on Earth

I don’t know if you watch Insecure. You absolutely should, because it’s great. But whether or not you do, I just need everyone to know that Natasha Rothwell’s performance as Kelli may be among the funniest things I’ve ever seen. The fake British accent this week? A masterpiece. 

Also, she tweets a version of this every single day. Hero.

What to watch this week: 

The Great: It’s the whole vibe of The Favourite, but with Catherine the Great.

At Home With Amy Sedaris: Amy Sedaris nailed the quarantine madness vibe before it was cool.

Smash ‘Bombshell in Concert’ Reunion: The kindest thing we could do for ourselves is pretend it is 2012 and the good season of Smash is on. 

What to skip this week: 

Ultimate Tag: Testing the limit of “desperate times.” 



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Daily Beast News

Paul Manafort Walks. His Fellow Inmate Is Facing 16 More Years.

When Paul Manafort walked out of Loretto Federal Correctional Institution on Wednesday, he had about four years left on his sentence. He left behind a number of inmates who weren’t as lucky as he was. 

David Barren, a fellow inmate at Loretto, isn’t Paul Manafort. He’s African-American. He never worked as a powerful Republican lobbyist or the president’s former campaign manager. And he didn’t commit millions of dollars of tax fraud, violate federal lobbying rules, or commit witness tampering while awaiting trial. 

Instead, Barren committed non-violent drug offenses and got a sentence of life plus 20 years. Barren was charged with conspiracy to distribute cocaine and prosecutors alleged that he and his associates had sold upwards of 500 pounds of cocaine in a period of two years. Like Manafort, who was convicted of hiding millions of dollars earned from unregistered lobbying activities on behalf of Ukraine’s pro-Russian government, Barren was also convicted of financial crimes—52 counts of money laundering for moving the proceeds of his sales through the banking system.

By all expectations, Barren should’ve been out of prison in January 2017 when President Obama commuted his life sentence along with 57 other prisoners convicted of nonviolent drug offenses.

But the kinds of breaks that people like Manafort get in life have a funny way of eluding people like Barren.  

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Daily Beast News

Paul Manafort Released From Prison to Escape Coronavirus, Reports Say

President Trump’s disgraced former campaign chairman Paul Manafort has been released from prison and will serve the rest of his sentence at home to lessen the risk of him succumbing to the novel coronavirus, according to multiple reports.

Manafort has been serving out his seven-and-a-half year sentence at FCI Loretto in central Pennsylvania on charges related to Special Sounsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. He was found guilty of tax fraud and conspiracy and was sentenced in March 2019. He wasn’t due to be released from prison until November 2024.

At the age of 71, Manafort is considered to be at particular risk from the disease, which hits harder among older people. His lawyer, Kevin Downing, requested Manafort’s early release from prison due to coronavirus-related health fears last month, saying that he’d been suffering health problems including high blood pressure, liver disease, and respiratory issues for years.

“Mr. Manafort is at a high risk of contracting COVID-19 at FCI Loretto due to his age and pre-existing health conditions, and it is imperative that Mr. Manafort be transferred to home confinement immediately in order to minimize the likelihood of Mr. Manafort contracting or spreading the potentially fatal disease,” Downing wrote.

In December, Manafort was hospitalized following a cardiac event.

ABC News reports that he was released from prison to head home early Wednesday morning. CBS News stated that Manafort was met by his wife and another family member on his release, and NBC News also confirmed the release with an unnamed source.

There are no reported cases of coronavirus at FCI Loretto, but Manafort’s lawyers had previously argued that the “growing number of cases in Pennsylvania” meant it was “only a matter of time before the infection spreads to staff and inmates.” The attorneys said last month that high-risk inmates, such as their client, had to be removed from the prison before the virus arrived.

Attorney General William Barr previously told the Bureau of Prisons that it should be more willing to grant home confinement to older inmates with underlying conditions, such as Manafort, as a way to stop the spread of the virus inside the nation’s prisons.

The latest figures showed that, across the country, 2,818 federal inmates and 262 BOP staff members had tested positive for COVID-19 at federal prisons. Fifty inmates have died.

Late Tuesday night, a federal judge ordered a prison in Connecticut to speed up its process for releasing at-risk inmates, warning that officials’ “foot-dragging” violated inmates’ constitutional right not to be forced to suffer cruel and unusual punishment.

A BOP spokeswoman told the Associated Press that 2,400 inmates have been moved to home confinement since the end of March and and more than 1,200 others are set to be released.

Manafort is one of several high-profile inmates to be granted early release. Michael Avenatti, the attorney known for representing adult film star Stormy Daniels in her case against President Trump, has been granted temporary home confinement. Trump’s former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, will be released to home confinement at the end of May, according to CBS News.

Cohen had been told he was to be released from an Otisville, New York, federal prison camp to home confinement last week—but that was delayed without explanation, according to his lawyers, despite the fact that there have been confirmed cases at the facility.



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Gateway Pundit News

Former Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort Released to Home Confinement for Remainder of Sentence

Former Trump Campaign Manager was released from prison to home confinement on Wednesday morning.

Manafort was targeted by deep state attorneys after he helped Donald Trump win the presidency.

Manafort was serving seven years in prison for tax fraud.

TRENDING: Tucker Carlson Confronts Former Rep. Trey Gowdy for Actions He and Former Speaker Paul Ryan Took that Allowed Mueller and Obamagate to Flourish (VIDEO)

More at CBS News.



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Gateway Pundit News

Sen. Rand Paul Calls Anthony Fauci Out To His Face Over Lack of Understanding the Economy

Senator Rand Paul told Anthony Fauci during a senate hearing on Tuesday that scientists should “have a little bit of humility” because they do not understand what is best for the economy.

In response, Fauci claimed that he “doesn’t give advice about anything other than public health.”

Sen. Paul critized Fauci during Tuesday’s Senate coronavirus response oversight hearing.

“I think we ought to have a little bit of humility in our belief that we know what’s best for the economy,” Paul said. “And as much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all. I don’t think you’re the one person that gets to make a decision.”

TRENDING: CROOKED OBAMA PANICS! Deep State Reporter Isikoff Releases His “Leaked” Call – Former President’s Fingerprints All Over Attempted Coup and More Documents Are Coming!

Senator Paul, who caught the virus and quickly recovered, said that he believes there are ways to slow the spread while keeping the economy going.

“We’re opening up a lot of economies around the U.S., and I hope that people who are predicting doom and gloom and saying, ‘Oh, we can’t do this’ … will admit that they were wrong if there isn’t a surge because I think that’s what’s going to happen,” Paul added.

The Kentucky senator added that they have had fewer deaths in his state than they do during a normal flu season.

“In rural states — we never really reached any sort of pandemic levels in Kentucky and other states. We have less deaths in Kentucky than we have in an average flu season.”

In response, Fauci said “I have never made myself out to be the end all, and only voice in this. I’m a scientist, a physician, and a public health official. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence.”

Sen. Paul had also noted that the infection rate is low in children, so it may be time to consider reopening schools, which Fauci pushed back on.

“We really better be very careful, particularly when it comes to children, because the more and more we learn, we’re seeing things the virus can do that we didn’t see from the studies in China, or in Europe,” Fauci said. “You’re right, in the numbers that children, in general, do much much better than adults and the elderly, and particularly those with underlying conditions, but I am very careful and hopefully humble that I don’t know everything about this disease, and that’s why I’m very reserved in making broad predictions,” Fauci said.



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Coindesk News

Paul Tudor Jones’ Complete Case for Bitcoin

The story behind the soundbite: why one of the world’s most famous investors, Paul Tudor Jones, is betting on bitcoin as a hedge against a new inflation era.

The story behind the soundbite: why one of the world’s most famous investors is betting on bitcoin as a hedge against a new inflation era.

Last week, investing legend Paul Tudor Jones rocked the world of crypto and traditional markets with his full-throated entrance into the bitcoin market via his latest letter to Tudor BVI investors. 

While the headlines (and the quick price bump on the back of FOMO buying) were great, the story is even more interesting than the soundbite. 

In this episode, NLW breaks down the Paul Tudor Jones complete case for bitcoin, looking at: 

Disclosure Read More

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Gateway Pundit News

EPIC! Matt Gaetz Tosses Trey Gowdy Under the Bus with Paul Ryan for Blocking GOP Subpoenas of Deep State Operatives (VIDEO)

Rep. Matt Gaetz, attorney-author Alan Dershowitz and investigative journalist John Solomon joined Sean Hannity Friday night to discuss the latest House Intelligence Committee document release that proves the Obama administration had nothing on Trump and Russia. It was all a hoax and they pushed forward with their investigations anyway.

During the segment Rep. Gaetz tossed former Rep. Trey Gowdy under the bus for blocking the subpoenas of deep state operatives.

Matt Gaetz: Devin Nunes is a patriot. And I’m glad you went through Trey Gowdy’s exquisite questions in 2017 to these corrupt officials. I guess my questions Sean would be why was it then in late May in 2018 that Trey Gowdy went on Martha MacCallum’s show and said the FBI did exactly as all of our fellow Americans would have wanted them to do and that it had nothing to do with Donald Trump. Both of those things have now been proven to be untrue and it seems that Gowdy’s brilliant lawyering back in 2017 that we’re only able to see now proves those statements untrue. The number one question I get asked from Americans is why no one has gone to jail and is held accountable. Unfortunately, when Nunes and Meadows and Jordan and I wanted subpoena power it was Paul Ryan and Trey Gowdy that wouldn’t give us that subpoena power. Democrats sent out hundreds of subpoenas. When we had control and could have run this to ground in 2017 we didn’t send out a single subpoena. Not one. And that’s a failure of our Republican leadership.

Good for Matt Gaetz!

TRENDING: So Good! Kayleigh McEnany DESTROYS Liberal Hack Yamiche Alcindor and Fake News Media at Friday Presser (VIDEO)

As we have reported for years here at The Gateway Pundit Paul Ryan blocked subpoenas of deep state operatives.
So did Gowdy.

HUGE–> President Trump: Paul Ryan BLOCKED SUBPOENAS of Democrats! — Ryan Was On The Other Side!

Via Hannity:

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Coindesk News

Blockchain Bites: Paul Tudor Jones, Open Options and Why Bitcoin Looks Strong Heading to the Halving

Bixin is launching a $66M fund, Massive Adoption’s Jacob Kostecki is getting sued and Filecoin is delivering physical hard drives.

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