In the last flu season, the regular (influenza) flu killed a little over 34,000 Americans, according to CDC statistics. As of today, the coronavirus has now killed over 69,000 Americans — more than double the deaths from the seasonal flu for an entire year.
That means the coronavirus has killed more Americans in just two months than the regular flu might kill in two (typical) years.
No, bro, this isn’t “just the flu.”
With 69,492 deaths and 185,047 recoveries tracked so far for the USA, the Case Fatality Rate for the coronavirus in the USA now stands at 27%, or 27 out of 100 people dying, while 73 out of 100 people are recovering. (SOURCE: Worldometers.info, accessed May 4th, 2020)
In contrast, the Case Fatality Rate for the regular flu is below 0.1%, meaning fewer than 1 in 1,000 people diagnosed with the regular flu end up dying from it.
The Case Fatality Rate for the coronavirus in Michigan is approaching 10%
At the same time, Michigan has recorded 4,049 deaths out of 43,754 confirmed infections. Using just those raw numbers, you might say the Case Fatality Rate for the coronavirus in Michigan is 9.3%, which is already 93 times higher than the regular flu.
However, many of the confirmed infections are asymptomatic, which means they don’t qualify as “cases.” A “case” is a person who is symptomatic and has been diagnosed with the infection. That’s the definition for the seasonal flu, the coronavirus, and all other infectious diseases. Asymptomatic carriers are never counted as part of the “cases.”
So in reality, the number of symptomatic cases in Michigan is below 43,754, which means the Case Fatality Rate is actually higher than 9.3%. It’s almost certainly above 10%, which turns out to be a recurring Case Fatality Rate for the world.
A Financial Times analysis published last week found that out of about 3 million confirmed infections worldwide, the number of excess fatalities from any cause was around 300,000. That’s roughly a 10% Case Fatality Rate, which is 100 times higher than the Case Fatality Rate of the regular flu.
In truth, the real fatality rate for the coronavirus is even higher, given that fewer people are dying from traffic accidents, work injuries and other causes of catastrophic death, meaning the “excess mortality” figure doesn’t capture the full extent of the coronavirus deaths around the world.
In rough terms, it’s accurate to state that the Case Fatality Rate for the regular flu is 0.1%, while the Case Fatality Rate for the coronavirus is 10%. That means 1 in 10 people who become symptomatic and are diagnosed with covid-19 end up dying from it.
And that means the coronavirus is two orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu, which is why we’re already seeing twice the number of flu deaths now caused by the coronavirus in just two months. It’s also why the coronavirus is so incredibly dangerous and needs to be taken seriously, or new outbreaks will quickly overwhelm society as regions attempt to reopen their economies.
CDC warning about new surge starting in June
The coronavirus is just getting started, you see. And the CDC now projects a new surge in infections and deaths by early June, where they say the nation will see 3,000 deaths per day and 200,000 new infections per day. Those projections are likely based in part, we suspect, on the CDC observing thousands of people crowding the beaches of Texas and Florida, mostly refusing to wear masks, acting like #covidiots who are delusional about the danger they face.
The coronavirus laughs at those who fail to take it seriously. It will come surging back with a vengeance, doubling every 3-4 days once again, ultimately forcing cities and state into a new round of lockdowns (or, if left completely unmitigated, it will cause millions of deaths in the USA alone).
We disagree with the CDC’s timeline, however, as we believe the second wave won’t surge back until August. The CDC thinks it will happen in June, but it’s fair criticism to note that our projections have consistently been too conservative, even if they seem outrageous to most people at the time we initially release them.
Either way, it’s clear that complacency will lead to catastrophe as we have warned again and again. Soon, it will be clear which states will successfully navigate this pandemic vs. which states will be buried by it.
Stay informed and get prepared. Read Pandemic.news.